Climate Change


CSIRO has released a technical report; Climate Change in Australia. Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report (2015) and an associated website.

The information below has been summarised from the technical report and associated materials as well as work undertaken by SWCC and the Centre of Excellence in Natural Resources Management (CENRM) who were funded to support WA and SA NRM groups in undertaking the planning for climate change projects.

About CSIRO’s projections

 “The projections are based on our understanding of the climate system, historical trends and model simulations of the climate response to global scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Simulations come from the archive of global climate models (GCMs) developed by modelling groups from around the world through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) which also underpins the science of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”

Projected changes have been prepared for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used by the latest IPCC assessment, which represent different scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosol and land-use change. These RCPS include:

  • RCP2.6 – requiring very strong emission reductions from a peak at around 2020 to reach a carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration at about 420 parts per million (PPM) by 2100
  • RCP4.5 – slower emission reductions that stabilise the CO2 concentration at about 540 ppm by 2100
  • RCP8.5 – assumes increases in emissions leading to a CO2 concentration of about 940 ppm by 2100.

RCP6.0 is not included in the Technical Report or Cluster Reports due to a smaller sample of model simulations available compared to the other RCPs.


Click below for:

Global Projections (CSIRO and BoM)

Projections for Australia (CSIRO and BoM)

Projections for the South West NRM Region as part of the Southern and South-West Flatlands Cluster (CSIRO and BoM)




Header image by Tim Swallow.